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After two straight huge road wins, Jets QB Brett Favre floundered against the Broncos in Week 13. Ex-Jet Chad Pennington has been a steadying force for the Dolphins. He has only six interceptions this season.
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Here's how are AFC bloggers see things shaking out:
AFC EAST
New York Jets (8-4, first)
Analysis: One week after the Jets asserted themselves as AFC favorites with back-to-back road victories over the reigning conference champs and the last undefeated team, plenty of doubt was injected for homestretch analysis.
Remaining schedule
Sunday: at San Francisco
Dec. 14: vs. Buffalo
Dec. 21: at Seattle
Dec. 28: vs. Miami
The seesaw Denver Broncos went to the Meadowlands and thumped them good. But the Jets still lead the AFC East by a game and control their own destiny.
The Jets will crisscross the country over the next four weeks. They will visit the San Francisco 49ers (5,146 miles round trip), play host to the Buffalo Bills, visit the Seattle Seahawks (4,804 miles round trip) and then play the Miami Dolphins at home in what could be a critical season finale for both teams.
Aside from the travel, the schedule seems favorable. The Jets already have beaten the Bills and Dolphins on the road.
Difference-maker: The X factor always will be Brett Favre. The daredevil quarterback can win a game with a laser-beam throw or lose it with an atrocious interception.
Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer has done an efficient job of keeping Favre on point. When Favre throws one or zero interceptions, the Jets are 6-2. He has had four games with two or more interceptions. The Jets are 2-2 in those games, with their only victories against the Cincinnati Bengals and Kansas City Chiefs.
If running back Thomas Jones continues to play as brilliantly as he has been, then Favre's influence diminishes. But analyst Cris Collinsworth recently noted "the ticking bomb that is Brett Favre. It's going to go off -- in good ways and bad ways."
Ticket to Tampa? Fly standby. Any team that can stop the run like the Jets and has a balanced offense can make a long run.
New England Patriots (7-5, tied for second)
Analysis: The Patriots are tied with the Miami Dolphins at 7-5, one game behind the first-place Jets. While the Patriots have a chance to win the AFC East -- they'll need to go 3-1 at the minimum, and that's entirely possible -- they can get into the playoffs as a wild-card entry.
Remaining schedule
Sunday: at Seattle
Dec. 14: at Oakland
Dec. 21: vs. Arizona
Dec. 28: at Buffalo
Ahead of the Patriots in the wild-card standings are the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens at 8-4. The Colts' remaining opponents are the Bengals, Detroit Lions, Jacksonville Jaguars and Titans. That slate should leave the Colts at 11-5. The Ravens, however, have a tougher road against the Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Dallas Cowboys and Jaguars.
The Patriots must win their next two road games, a difficult task because they'll be on the other side of the continent. The Patriots are staying out West between games as they did earlier in the year when they split games against the 49ers and San Diego Chargers.
If the playoffs are on the line in their season finale at Buffalo, one has to figure the Patriots will come through.
Difference-maker: When receiver Randy Moss gets involved, the Patriots win. When he doesn't make plays, they don't.
Patriots offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels seems to have opened up the playbook enough for Matt Cassel that getting the ball to Moss hasn't been an issue. But Moss dropped a few biggies in the chilly rain Sunday, and the Steelers won easily.
In New England's seven victories, Moss has 38 catches for 598 yards and seven touchdowns. In five defeats, he has 20 catches for 187 yards and one touchdown.
Ticket to Tampa? Make sure it's refundable. Once the Patriots are in the playoffs, anything can happen, but they haven't won more than two games in a row all year.
Miami Dolphins (7-5, tied for second)
Analysis: Those who thought the Dolphins would be one game out of first place in December, please raise your hands.
Remaining schedule
Sunday: vs. Buffalo (in Toronto)
Dec. 14: vs. San Francisco
Dec. 21: at Kansas City
Dec. 28: at New York Jets
Thank you, Mrs. Sparano.
Now, anybody else?
The Dolphins' amazing turnaround has them on the verge of a playoff berth one season after being the NFL's laughingstocks. They have won five of their past six games and are 7-5, tied with the Patriots and one game behind the Jets.
The Dolphins put themselves within striking distance Sunday, when they were the only AFC East team to win. Their remaining schedule is kind enough that they actually can win the division. No opponent owns a winning record until they visit the Jets in the season finale.
Also of assistance is the Dolphins' game against the Bills. It will take place in a Toronto dome rather than the western New York elements.
Difference-maker: The Dolphins give themselves a chance to win each week because they rarely cough up the ball. They have committed only 10 turnovers through their first 12 games, tying an NFL record for that span.
Chad Pennington is the main reason for that. One of the three other teams in NFL history with 10 turnovers a dozen games into a campaign was the 2004 Jets, whom Pennington also quarterbacked.
Pennington has thrown six interceptions and ranks fifth with a 92.8 passer rating. He is the most significant on-field reason for the Dolphins' resurgence, and as long as he remains his prudent, efficient self, they'll play well.
Ticket to Tampa? Take a magic carpet. That would be an appropriate aircraft for a team that was 1-15 a season ago.
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